Chertoff and Gut Feelings:
Summer of Risk?

Gut Feeling, Summer of Risk....
I believe we're entering a period this summer of increased risk. We've seen a lot more public statements from Al Qaeda. There are a lot of reasons to speculate about that but one reason that occurs to me is that they're feeling more comfortable and raising expectations. In the last August, and in prior summers, we've had attacks against the West, which suggests that summer seems to be appealing to them. I think we do see increased activity in South Asia, so we do worry about whether they are rebuilding their capabilities. We've struck at them and degraded them, but they rebuild. All these things have given me kind of a gut feeling that we are in a period of increased vulnerability.
Michael Chertoff, Homeland Security Director (Chicago Tribune 7/10/07)


On Voters' Gut Feelings....
But this is a democracy. You vote, you do the best you can with the choices presented, and you show the appropriate opposition to the guy who seems most likely to bring trouble. (I think that is one reason for the polarity and division of politics now. No one knows in his gut that the guy he supports will do any good. But at least you can oppose with enthusiasm and passion the guy you feel in your gut will cause more trouble than is needed! This is what happens when the pickings are slim: The greatest passion gets funneled into opposition.)
Peggy Noonan (Wall Street Journal 7/13/07)


Just the Facts Please, Cut the Gut Feelings....
The other day, Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff said he has “kind of a gut feeling that we are in a period of increased vulnerability.”
Let me say this in the vernacular of my youth in New York: Gut feelings I can get from the very nice lady who takes in my shirts at the cleaners. From the Secretary of Homeland Security I expect facts.
From Luke Skywalker I expect to hear there may be a “disturbance in the force.” From Michael Chertoff I expect oversight of the Transportation Safety Administration.
Rich Galen, Mullings (7/13/07)